Global nuclear arms control under pressure in 2026

THE fragile global legal framework for nuclear weapons control faces further setbacks in 2026, eroding guardrails to avoid a nuclear crisis.
The first half of the year will see two key events: the US-Russia bilateral treaty, New START, expires on 5 February, and in April, New York hosts the Review Conference (RevCon) of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) -- the cornerstone of global nuclear security frameworks.
The RevCon, held every four to five years, is meant to keep the NPT alive.
But during the last two sessions, the 191 signatory states failed to agree on a final document, and experts expect the same outcome in April.
“I think this is going to be a difficult RevCon,” said Alexandra Bell, head of US -based global security nonprofit the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, at a UN-hosted online conference in early December.
“In terms of the current state and near future prospects of nuclear arms control architecture, things are bleak,” she added.
Anton Khlopkov, director of Russian think-tank the Centre for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS), took an even starker point of view, saying at the same event that “we are at the point of almost complete dismantlement of arms control architecture”.
“We should be realistic in the current circumstances. At best, I think we should try to preserve what we have,” he said.
‘Crumbling’ safeguards From US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to Russia’s test of the new Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and US President Donald Trump’s remarks about possibly resuming nuclear tests -- the international nuclear landscape darkened in 2025.
At the same time, “the arms control architecture is crumbling”, Emmanuelle Maitre of France’s Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) told AFP.
A key challenge hinges on a shift in global relations.
Nuclear control had been built over decades around a Moscow-Washington axis, but China’s growing power and rapid technological advances have shifted the international playing field, which is simultaneously increasingly strained.
“The growing interlinkage between nuclear and conventional forces and the emergence of disruptive technologies (such as the US Golden Dome defence system and new hypersonic weapons) have transformed traditional nuclear deterrence into a multi-domain concept, especially in a multipolar world,” said Peking University’s Hua Han. — AFP

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